The Price of Bread - Part 2

"One of the penalties of an ecological education is that one lives alone in a world of wounds. Much of the damage inflicted on land is quite invisible to laymen. An ecologist must either harden his shell and make believe that the consequences of science are none of his business, or he must be the doctor who sees the marks of death in a community that believes itself well and does not want to be told otherwise."
- Aldo Leopold, Round River

I’ve had 2 comments in the past couple of days over my bread blog. Both my friends brought up ethanol and biofuels. Originally, I had another paragraph in my blog about the affects of bread increases on local biofuel use, but I confess I had not thought the commodity chain through to the other end.

Here is the original article that appeared in AIM online:

Bakers Put Up Price Of Bread

Damien, an Australian living in rural Indonesia, commented on how people are expressing similar fears where he is living. Food prices will rise as farmers switch from food crops to crops that can be used for food, animal feed, and most importantly, biofuels like ethanol. My friend James, back home in Athens, wrote me a couple of long, darkly humorous emails on ethanol and the price of bread. He never posts this stuff as a comment (hint hint) so I cut and paste his emails here.

“Sadly, the price of bread and most other foods made from grain is going to increase sharply over the next few years now that cars are competing with people for food. Stupid ethanol. Unfortunately, the whole corn ethanol situation isn't very funny.... it just seems like a big scam to me. The positive energy balance for corn ethanol isn't very high, and some scientists say that under certain conditions it's actually negative. Ethanol from sugarcane is a lot more efficient but it's hardly problem free and it still removes valuable agricultural lands from production. As governments increase ethanol subsidies and as the demand for ethanol grows we are going to see major changes in the global food economy..... farmers are going to switch from wheat to corn when possible..... animal feed is going to become more expensive so milk and meat prices will also rise... the US might even get to the point where we stops exporting corn because we can sell it internally at higher profits for use as ethanol. Of course, once the oceans start dying we can turn them into giant algae farms and get our ethanol that way. :)”

One of the points I left out of my bread blog concerns local effects on the environment from bread price increases. Bakeries make bread at a central location for a lot of people (economy of scale). When people start cooking more at home because they can't afford bread, they need energy to do so. Here in Mozambique, that means firewood and charcoal. More people will need to harvest wood, more trees will be cut, and more biodiversity (species, habitat, ecosystem services, etc.) will be damaged. Additionally, since most of the people that will switch to wood/charcoal live in the city, they don’t see the daily affects of their actions which makes it all the easier to live with.

To me, this argues for an increased focus on agroforestry (sustainable biofuel and food production), local production of foods and services (cut down on fuel use, provide work, and ensure some sort of stable food supply adapted to local conditions), and vegetarianism (eliminate animal consumption of crops, this isn’t going to happen but I can dream). Food security, in Mozambique and elsewhere, is not going to get easier under our current and predicted environmental problems. We know the many problems associated with oil consumption, and it seems that ethanol has its own set of accompanying issues. Electricity, while cleaner, also creates problems as the electricity has to come from somewhere. Lots of electricity in the US comes from coal-fired power plants, diesel, hydroelectric dams, and nuclear. Solar, wind, and tidal may be good alternatives - but the scale of their use needs to be increased. Biofuels from crop waste (stalks) or poop could be useful. So where do we go from here? How soon do we get it? And how do we transfer these new technologies quicker to places like Mozambique?

The Price of Bread

Nine days ago, a small article appeared in AIM online about changes to bread prices in Mozambique. I read it, but didn't really think about the affects of a 43% increase in the price of a loaf of bread until today.

I've stopped eating most bread in the US because it sucks. It tastes like sawdust, has no consistency, and lasts longer than a food of that type should (in my humble opinion). However, Mozambicanos can make bread. They learned from the Portuguese who also make good bread. Chewy crust on the outside and decent chewy consistency on the inside. You can get white, whole wheat, and 7 grain, but you have to eat it fast. There are no preservatives so it only lasts a day or so. The smell of freshly baked bread wakes me up more than the smell of hot coffee. It is absolute heaven to pass a bakery early in the morning in Maputo.

Bread is a staple food in Mozambique. People eat a lot of rice and tschima (corn mash/pap/grits) with various meat and vegetable stews, but every day I pass pão vendedores on the street corners selling warm loaves slathered in butter or a groundnut paste (unsweetened) for breakfast and lunch. For some, the only meal they can depend on daily is a piece of bread (sometimes with butter or nut paste) and a cup of tea from the HIV clinic or church kitchen at the orphanage.

Today I stopped in at a small bakery next door to my neighborhood grocer's. The electricity was out in my apartment so my stove wasn't working. In times like these, peanut butter and strawberry jam always comes to my rescue. The price of pãozinhos (rolls) went up in the past week from 1 metical each to 1.5 meticais. The current exchange rate is 25.8 metacais = $1 US, so a roll costs approximately 4 cents US. That is not a lot for me, but for someone living on the streets it is a lot.

Mozambique grows only a very small amount of wheat in Tete province. Corn (milho) and rice are major grain crops here. Pretty much all of the wheat consumed in-country is imported. At the end of April a 50 kg sack of wheat flour cost 550 MTN ($22 USD). In two weeks, that price rose to 595 MTN (about $24 USD).

The bakers blame the millers, and the millers blame the international markets. A 250 gm loaf now costs 5 metacais (20 cents), and there is some fear that people will just stop buying bread. Other people are concerned about selling loaves that are smaller for the same price. It probably seems silly to anyone paying $1.50 or more for a loaf of bread in the US, but back in the States people have other food options. And now that winter has set in, that extra meal provides the energy to ward off shivering on a cold tropical morning. Many rural residents will continue to subsist on what they always have - foods like tschima and rice cooked over a fire. It is the urban and suburban residents who will feel the pinch.

Desperation

I check my mail at the US Public Affairs Office once a week. Because I am on a Fulbright, I get diplomatic pouch privileges within certain limits. I can order a book now and again from Amazon, and my mom and dad can send letters.

So I believed myself out of the reach of junk mail for a year. Ha! Visa must be really desperate to be sending me a credit card application in Mozambique. What a waste of taxpayer money and trees. I'm really surprised this was forwarded.

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Thanks again to everyone who has dropped me a line. My Dad is doing okay. He had to rescedule his appointment for 1 June, so no more news until then. :(

Microcredit in Matutuine District

Last year, Dr. Muhammed Yunus and the Grameen Bank (the bank he created in Bangladesh) shared the Nobel Peace Prize for an idea that is helping people help themselves get out of poverty. Microcredit loans provide individuals the capital they need to do things like buy farm animals to raise for profit or a sewing machine to set up a tailoring shop or repair a vehicle that they use to transport goods and people. I've even heard of women buying cell phones with microloans, and then becoming the telephone service provider for their entire community.

Very few individuals default on these tiny loans. There is pride and social pressure, and people who default on loans cannot borrow again. But also, as monies are repaid, they get reinvested in new entrepeneurs. Many of the microloans go to women. In the short term, this allows women to support their families and send their children to school. In the long term, it raises their political, economic, and social status.

Today, as I was reading the BBC news online, I came across a site that connects loaners directly to low-income entrepreneurs in the developing world. You actually can pick where and to whom you want to loan money. The basic amount the loaner contributes is $25, which is about 12 large regular coffees at a fancy coffee shop.

Crap, I sound like some sort of Sally Struthers advert for starving children in Ethiopia. Cue the flies and suffering please.

I'm not writing this because I drank their koolaid or they slipped me a 1000 metacais under the table, but because I think that it is a pretty cool idea. Also, because they are operating in Matutuine District, Mozambique where I work. Right now there are 62 small businesses that have started, 63% owned by women, with an average loan size of $800. People have bought chickens, set up small grocery stores, repaired vehicles to run bus services, and repaired fishing boats and nets. In many cases, the entrepreneurs are now employing other people (and thus supporting their families). I've actually bought dry goods from one of the women entrepreneurs listed on Kiva. She operates a little loja (store) in Salamanga. Now I know how she started up her business.

The average wage in Mozambique is less than $1 per day. Things cost less, but people still work pretty damn hard for that less than $1. There are very few beggars here, most people would rather offer some sort of service or product in return for your spare change - carrying your purchases at the market, watching your car (people love to steal anything removable, including the car), selling batiks, hawking fruit and veg on the sidewalk, etc.

Occasionally, I'll have this moment where I get all weirded out thinking about the fact that I'm carrying around more money in my pocket than some Mozambicanos see in a week of working. Then I usually do something like buy roasted peanuts (that I don't necessarily want to eat right then) from barefoot and raggedly clothed 7 year olds hawking them on the street when they should be in school. But, of course, they can't go to school because they can't afford the $4 uniforms, school supplies, or tuition fees, and/or they are orphaned with no one to care them.

I'll continue to buy roasted peanuts, but loaning money directly to people with plans to put it to good use is something I can support as well.

Just another link if you are interested in Kiva:
You Too Can Be A Banker To The Poor - Nicholas Kristof

Historic Wildlife Trade

The blog I posted the other night was pretty random. I got really geeky excited over a bunch of old weights and measurements with no explanation. So now I'll try to explain.

Ivory - Museu da História Natural (Maputo). The tip of the tusks is at least 70".

Two summers ago, I got a small research grant to travel to Portugal to collect archival data from the colonial archives about the historic wildlife trade in Delagoa Bay (now Maputo Bay). It was a way for me to look for data about historic plant use, Ronga culture, and landscape descriptions as well.

I found old customs records containing information about a wide range of plants and animals being exported out between 1845 and 1906. The records provided monetary values (in Reis), number of tusks, teeth, and horns, packaging sizes, and weights, but not in a form that I could understand. This made it difficult to calculate the potential sizes of animals killed for their ivory, skin, or horns.

White Rhino (Ceratotherium simum) - Museu da História Natural (Maputo)

Why bother trying to figure out how animals were hunted or how big they were? Or how many trees were harvested? It all goes back to my questions about the African savanna landscape we see today has been shaped by human activities and decisions in the past.

Hippo skull - Museu da História Natural (Maputo). Hippo ivory was used for dentures in the nineteenth century.

I now have some real numbers to crunch. In July, I will be presenting my preliminary results at the Society for Conservation Biology meetings in Port Elizabeth, South Africa. This makes me more than a little nervous (the talking part), but I am hoping for some good feedback so that I can polish up my "little project" into something worth publishing.

The following is my abstract for the presentation:

Wildlife Trade Exports from Delagoa Bay and Its Hinterland 1845-1906

While previous investigation of East African export records has focused on the social, political, and economic changes generated by the slave and ivory trade in this region, these same records could be used to document regional long-term ecological change. This study analyzes available export records for Delagoa Bay (now Maputo Bay, Mozambique) and its hinterland from 1845 to 1906 in order to understand the potential ecological impacts of historic natural resource extraction on this region. Types, amounts, and values of exported biological, non-agricultural resources were collected from the alfândega registers held at the Archivo Histórico Ultramarino in Lisbon, Portugal. Published accounts of nineteenth century explorers and travelers were used to identify unusual items and the extent of Delagoa Bay’s hinterland. Information on the ecological niche of identifiable exports was drawn from the literature to determine potential ecosystem impacts. Elephant ivory, rhinoceros horn, and hippopotamus teeth comprise the top three exports from 1845-1906. Other listed exports include pelts, skins, bones, and horn of various wild animals, sea turtle shells, cowry and conch shells, whale oil and ambergris, fresh and dried fish, specialized timbers (Diospyros kirkii, Spirostachys africana, Dalbergia melanoxylon), mangrove bark, rubber (Landolphia kirkii), and a lichen (Roccella montagnei).

An interesting quote

This morning I dropped into the PAO library (US Public Affairs Office) to catch up on the print news and found an interesting quote. At least interesting to me as a historical ecologist studying interactions between landscapes and cultures.

"Comparative history provides a way of dissecting the roles of chance and necessity, of assessing how and to what extent the time invariant and space invariant laws intersect with the unique attributes of individuals and their surroundings (250)."
- G.Vermeij, Nature: An Economic History (2004)

I wasn't actually reading the book, I was reading a review written by an economist in the Journal of Economic Literature. Somehow I was able to overcome my inherent phobia of financial matters and browse the economic journals to which the library subscribes. (I am able to do my own taxes and follow my investments, it just isn't something I get a kick out of like other people I know and love.)

The actual review was interesting as well - comparing the fields of biology (mostly evolutionary biology) and economics. However, I was disappointed that the author didn't mention economic anthropology. Another book for my ever-growing reading list.

Makyr, Joel. 2006. Economics and biologists: a review of Geerat J. Vermeij's Nature: An Economic History. Journal of Economic Literature 44: 1005-13.

China, Cargo Cults and Growth

On Thursday, Chinese President Hu Jintao visited Mozambique during his whirlwind tour of Africa. I think that I may have seen his motorcade pass on Ave. Eduardo Mondlane that afternoon. Not too many people rate 10 motorcycle police, 4 sedans with darkened windows, an ambulance for a private clinic, and 3 large truckloads overflowing with Mozambican soldiers carrying AK-47s. The whole thing took about 5 minutes to pass and made a hell of a lot racket (almost as much as the 4-wheelers young men drive on the streets of Maputo for kicks). The people on the street looked up briefly, but then went back to whatever they were doing. The atmosphere felt resigned - the equivalent of a "Whatever" this doesn't matter to us.

According to the the local paper, China has forgiven Mozambique $20 million USD in debt which is a good thing. That's a lot of money. They also pledged to continue to invest in Mozambican markets and build a sports stadium in exchange for Mozambique increasing the amount of Chinese imports they let in. I won't summarize any further. Here's the link to the article itself.


Mozambique: China to Cancel Debts
Agencia de Informacao de Mocambique (Maputo)
February 8, 2007

This story is being played out all over Africa, and has been historically. Historic evidence and patterns say that these types of treaties, no matter how well meaning, lead primarily to increased dependency on foreign investment (or complete takeover, see National Geographic's coverage of Nigerian Oil). I can be optimistic that it won't happen, but the pragmatist in me says get real.



I probably wouldn't be thinking about this so much if I hadn't run across a paper in the Journal of Southern African Studies recently that discussed Mozambican attitudes towards development and land (citation below). I read the paper mainly because it talked about how the 1997 Land Law gave communities and individuals the right to delimit and register land as their own (i.e. local communities and people can now claim ownership to traditionaly occupied lands). Under this law, Mozambican and foreign individuals and companies must negotiate leases with these individuals and communities to use/develop the land and then register the lease with the government. Problems arise because local people may not receive payments for the real value of the land that they are giving up for the next 50-100 years. The author describes cases where communities only receive 1 USD/ha, the entire community is not consulted, the community doesn't understand what is going to be done on the land, the payment is distributed unevenly, absentee landlords and hobby farmers who don't care for their land or let their cattle graze the neighbor's cornfields, leasees don't understand local cultures and so don't get a lease, etc.

The point that jumped out (sorry for the huge tangent) was the belief that economic progress in Mozambique will only come from outside - hence the reference to cargo cults. (Yeah, it's wikipedia, but it's a quick and dirty overview of the topic.) And it wouldn't have struck me as so odd except for the combination of Hu's visit and my conversation with R. about business education with locals.

R. is a British man who teaches business development classes to local residents on Saturdays (He might do other stuff, but that's all we've talked about so far.). He's been working with locally grown churches to help locals (of all faiths) grow their own businesses without outside investment. He told me earlier this week that local people just don't believe that any businesses can succeed without foreign startup funds and support. They tell him that good ideas and funding can only come from the outside. What a sad commentary on your own country (and what a total snowjob past foreigners/experience has done on the mindset of many people here). I wish R. the best of luck in his endeavor.

Hanlon, J. 2004. Renewed land debate and the "cargo cult" in Mozambique. Journal of Southern African Studies 30(3): 603-625.

The photo above was taken at the Museum of Natural History in Maputo. The wood sculpture, carved by a native in the late 1800s/early 1900s, depicts a foreign colonial drinking something - perhaps a gin and tonic?